MLB DFS MAINSLATE BREAKDOWN WEDNESDAY 6/8/2022

It seems like weather has been a real pain for the better part of the MLB season so far and again, tonight, there are a couple spots to pay attention to.  This evenings 10-game slate has some really affordable pitchers, great mustaches and several games with pretty high totals - so it should be a fun one.

Weather again is showing at least 2 games with rain concerns.  This includes, Atlanta and Chicago (White Sox).  Anything can happen though and although yesterday looked really ugly, teams found a way to play all games.  But there are impacts on pitchers with delays, so keep that in mind as we navigate our picks.

DISCLAIMER - Keep in mind, these articles and any associated videos are published early, so that you have a chance to review and set lineups.  Actual lineups likely are not out yet, so please please make sure you check lineups before lock.  Also, please ensure you check weather and potential delays.

PITCHERS

• Nathan Eovaldi - $8,800 - @ LAA - 8.5 O/U

  • Another day - another loss for the Angels. If we were willing to take Whitlock against the Angels last night, I'll be looking to swing it right back around tonight with a very reasonably priced Eovaldi in a matchup where the Angels are only projected to score 3.73 runs. Not a whole lot is going in favor of the Angels right now, they just lost their 13th straight, fired their manager and it looks like Mike Trout was injured in last nights game (heres to hoping he is ok). All of these reasons should have you looking to take a pitcher against the Angels each and every night. Eovaldi on Daily Fantasy Nerd is the 3rd highest projected pitcher in terms of raw scoring, yet he sits as the 5th highest salaried pitcher, meaning there is a a lot of value here. Over his last 3 games, he has pitched very well, albeit it's not like he has gone through a blender of tough lineups, he has shown he still has the ability to pitch well in good matchups. For the season, he has a 3.13 xFIP and 26% K-rate, all very solid again for his price tag. As I mentioned yesterday, the Angels were great to start the season but if you focus over the last 2 weeks and their horrible stretch of losing, they simply have been one of the worst teams in baseball (bottom 5) when facing right handers. Now with Trout potentially out, it could get even worse offensively. I love the price, recent performances and now matchup for Eovaldi tonight.

• Nestor Cortes - $10,300 - @ MIN - 8.5 O/U

  • I've gone back and forth on whether I want to recommend Cortes tonight, as I think he is just a tad bit over priced. It came down to one thing, his mustache, once you see it, you can't help but stick him into your lineups. But seriously, he is young, but not that young, has a few years of MLB and innings under his belt, but not as many as you would like to see, and prior to this year, hasn't been all that impressive in the big leagues. So that is my worry, for someone priced as an elite pitcher currently. However, he truly has been excellent this season, with his numbers across the board improving. His xFIP sits at 3.08, HR/9 at .60, K% at 29.7% and BB% at 6.1%. All of those numbers have been drastic improvements over his prior 4 seasons. From a fantasy perspective, he has had 5 games this season with over 27 fantasy points and 9/10 with 14 or more fantasy points. He has been pitching deep into games, allowing very few damage and has a couple double digit strikeout games under his belt including 6 games with 7 or more Ks. So it's been great. The Twins still bother me a little bit, I was high on them coming into the season, so maybe thats the real issue. For the season, they rank somewhere between 10-15 in most stats against left handers but over the last 2 weeks, those numbers have fallen quite a bit. So the matchup does seem good tonight for Cortes. Heres to hoping that mustache magic continues.

• Tony Gonsolin

• Ian Anderson

BATTERS

• Bryce Harper - $5,300 - @ MIL - @ Houser (R - MIL)

  • I'm coming right back to Harper tonight vs. Adrian Houser. Something going to give here soon, as Harper vs. right handed pitching over the last 14 days popping off the page with a 184 wRC+, .442 wOBA and .324 ISO. I'm not sure where that ranks in baseball right now, but those numbers are crazy. Adrian Houser for his career has really offered nothing to write home about when facing lefties. He has a .351 wOBA, 4.86 xFIP and 1.01 HR/9. Naturally, it can get worse when pitching at home for him, as Milwaukee is a very hitter favorable park. It's a bit annoying that Harpers price jumped $200 but in my mind, it still is at a great value point given his talent. Fire him back up tonight.

• Trevor Story - $5,300 - @ LAA - @ Detmers - (L - LAA)

  • What we have here is a right handed that crushes left handed pitching vs. a left handed pitcher who gets crushed by right handed pitching. Even when adjusting for his time spend at Coors Field, Story has a career 126 wRC+, .363 wOBA and .231 ISO against left handed pitching. Those number obviously balloon when you add in home games but the point is pretty much the same, take Story when he has the split advantage. Boston is projected to score 4.77 runs tonight, so there should be plenty of opportunity to capitalize.

• Rafael Ortega - $3,000 - @ BAL - @ Lyles - (R - BAL)

  • Right now, Daily Fantasy Nerd is showing Ortega as the best value bat on the night. At only $3,000 against Jordan Lyles you can start to understand why. Keep in mind, however, this value number can change rapidily, especially once lineups get released since the position in the order can affect value. However, Ortega does seem like a solid option at his salary tonight and has been performing fairly well over the last few weeks. Prior to last night, Ortega had a hit in 8 straigtht games with 3 of those being multi-hit games. He hasn't offered much in terms of power but can still pay off in terms of salary with what he has been able to do this season thus far. Oh and it helps that Lyles isn't anything that should scare off bats.

• JD Martinez

• Kyle Schwarber

• Freddie Freeman

• Ian Happ

STACKS

• Philadelphia Phillies - 4.21 Runs Projected - @ Houser (R - MIL)

  • As you might imagine based on my runback of Harper, I will be looking to stack the Phillies again tonight. They were able to scrap together a win last night with only 3 runs scored but prior to that game, their offense had been on such a heater that it intrigues me to keep testing the water with them. I mentioned Harper's split advantage (L v R) against Adrian Houser but overall, I am comfortable taking both sides of the plate against him. He is a low strikeout guy (17-18% over last 3 seasons) and this season has been giving up more flyballs and hard contact than he has in any of the previous 3 seasons. I just like the spot and can see the Phillies not gathering that much ownership, making this one of my favorite stacks overall.

• New York Yankees - 4.76 Runs Projected - @ Archer (R - MIN)

  • As of this writing, the Yankees are 5th in terms of teams projected run totals for the night. Teams in this range typically see a lower amount of ownership, since on paper they aren't being projected to score as many runs as others. To me, this presents a perfect opportunity to jump on one of, if not the best team in baseball. Yes, this will be an expensive stack, but I think pitching allows it to fit tonight. The Yankees are also back to basically full firepower, with LeMahieu, Judge, Rizzo, Stanton, Donaldson and Hicks all in the lineup last night - btw scoring 10 runs. They also get to face Chris Archer tonight, who back a few years ago was one of my favorite young pitchers. However, he quickly hit a wall and just hasn't been the top end / ace pitcher some thought he could be (cough cough Pirates). Over the last couple of years, Archer has really struggled with walks, basically averaging a 10% BB-rate since 2019. Thats not good, not good at all and when we are talking stacks, guys that are going to allow baserunners can be burned very quickly. The Yankees by the way against right handed pitching are ranked 1st in wRC+, 2nd in wOBA and 4th in ISO. Keep in mind, most of this season they haven't played with a full strength lineup. That's what we want. I think the total on the Yankees is too low tonight, lets stack them and take advantage.