MLB DFS MAINSLATE BREAKDOWN WEDNESDAY 6/15/2022

Tonight features a 9-game main slate with a bunch of teams projected to score a bunch of runs.  In fact, I don't know if we have seen this yet this season, with 7 teams projected to score 5 or more runs.  It must be getting hot out there.   It's not necessarily the best night for pitching but when this happens it can help lower ownership and provide better opportunities.

Weather looks good tonight with the only chance of rain being in Washington, although even that looks minor.  Most importantly, the country is starting to heat up, with several games approaching or exceeding 90 degrees.  This will ultimately lead to a boost in offense, so keep that in mind.

DISCLAIMER - Keep in mind, these articles and any associated videos are published early, so that you have a chance to review and set lineups.  Actual lineups likely are not out yet, so please please make sure you check lineups before lock.  Also, please ensure you check weather and potential delays.

PITCHERS

• Jose Berrios - $8,900 - vs. BAL - 9 O/U

  • There are some higher tier pitchers on the slate tonight but I just don't like their overall matchups. That has led me to Jose Berrios who is coming off of 2 excellent starts against 2 awful teams. The good news is that he gets another matchup with a sub-par team tonight at home vs. Baltimore. Berrios does have K-upside, showcasing a 13 K game against his former team the Twins just 2 weeks ago. For the season he only has a 19.5% K-rate but I do think positive regression can be expected, considering his career K% sits at nearly 24%. As mentioned, the matchup is good with Baltimore ranked 20th in wRC+, 22nd in wOBA and 15th in ISO against right handed pitching. Baltimore is also only projected 3.48 runs tonight while Berrios has a very respectable 6 Ks projected. The price tag on Berrios is under $9k, which is another reason I'm in his corner tonight. All considered, I think Berrios is a fine option on a loaded offensive slate.

• Spencer Strider - $7,700 - @ WAS - 9.5 O/U

  • First and foremost, watch the rain in this game - it looks fine but it is the only game with a chance of weather impacting play. But the play here is based purely on value. I think Strider, who now should be fully stretched out for the Braves, is a great option to save some salary tonight and fit in some of the bigger bats. He is coming off a great recent performance against the Pirates, having went 5.2 innings, with 0 earned runs and 8 strikeouts. If this guy can find a way to last longer into games, he has some serious upside with his K potential. We are talking about a guy that owns a 36.8% K-rate this far into the season, which is crazy, especially at his salary. However, his most recent 5.2 inning performance was his longest to date, with most prior to that only being a few innings at most - so there is risk. But his pitch count continues to creep up, hitting 92 in his most recent start. So we could see 95+ pitches tonight if all goes well and as mentioned, he could push double digit Ks in the right matchup. Speaking of matchup, outside of Soto, Washington has really struggled against right handers, ranking 18th or worse in every stat we analyze. Again, at his salary and with the potential K-upside, I think Strider is worth a shot tonight.

• Jack Flaherty

BATTERS

• Wilson Contreras - $4,400 - vs. SD - vs. Weathers (L - SD)

  • There a ton of runs projected for the Chicago Cubs tonight (6.24), which is great because most of their players salaries are depressed. Now, they are depressed because this is a team that simply stinks, but you can pick a few guys out of the lineup when the spot is right. That includes Contreras, who is one of few catchers that I have ever recommended in these write-ups. But the salary is cheap and he will be hitting right in the middle of the Cubs lineup, against a bad pitcher, with a split advantage, in Wrigley, where it is heating up and the wind is blowing out. Make sense? Fire him up.

• Jose Ramirez - $6,000 - @ COL - @ Gomber - (L - COL)

  • Ramirez was recommended in last night's article, went 2/4, with 3 RBI, 1 run scored and walk - yet his priced dropped $100. It is true that he worse at the plate when facing a left hander, but he still holds a career 124 wRC+, .357 wOBA and .210 ISO in the matchups. Not bad at all. Maybe that lowers his ownership - who knows - but I still like the matchup and them coming back for another game at Coors Field. His opponent, Gomber, just gave up 9 earned runs to the Braves in his last home start, so this is a guy that can easily help a lineup put up crooked numbers. I'm going right back to the well here with Ramirez.

• Manny Machado

• Rafael Devers

• Amed Rosario

• Vlad Guerrero Jr.

• George Springer

• Frank Schwindel

• Eric Hosmer

STACKS

• Toronto Blue Jays - 6.02 Earned Runs - vs. Zimmerman (L - BAL)

  • Tornoto has over 6 runs projected as a team tonight yet is still only ranked 2nd overall on the night for projected runs scored. It's safe to say tonight we may see a lot of offense. But if you ask me, of the top 4 teams for run projectsions, would I rather have the Cubs, Padres, Rockies or Blue Jays, I'm taking Blue Jays almost every time. They are facing a left handed pitcher in Zimmerman who has been absolutely getting crushed for the better part of a month - allowing 27 earned runs (41 hits) in his last 5 games. Whew. Add in the fact the Blue Jays are loaded with great right handed bats and power to make this a split advantage matchup, and tonight looks to be a great spot to stack them.

• Cleveland Guardians - 5.63 Earned Runs - @ Gomber (L - COL)

  • I like that the Guardians are somewhat buried amongst all the projected high scoring teams, coming in at 5th overall in terms of projected runs scored. I briefly mentioned Gomber, the Rockies left hander, with Ramirez, but the idea largely remains the same for the entire Guardian's lineup. Gomber has allowed 21 hits and 10 earned runs over his last 3 home starts. He also owns a low 18% K% on the season, meaning balls will be in play against him. At Coors Field, with those numbers and players like Ramirez, things can get ugly fast. Also, add in the fact if the weather approaches 90 degrees, the ball might just travel a bit further.

• Chicago Cubs

• Boston Red Sox