MLB DFS MAINSLATE BREAKDOWN TUESDAY 6/14/2022

There is a huge 15-game main slate on top tonight in MLB DFS and (knock on wood) there doesn't appear to be many weather issues to be worried about.  In addition to some stud pitchers on the mound, we have the return of the Colorado series as part of the 6 games with an O/U at or above 9.  So it should be exciting.

As mentioned, weather actually surprisingly looks ok for tonight's slate.   The only games I'll mention include Washington and Philadelphia, but both look minor in terms of weather impact.

DISCLAIMER - Keep in mind, these articles and any associated videos are published early, so that you have a chance to review and set lineups.  Actual lineups likely are not out yet, so please please make sure you check lineups before lock.  Also, please ensure you check weather and potential delays.

PITCHERS

• Shane Bieber - $9,800 - @ COL - 10.5 O/U

  • I'm taking a chance tonight with Bieber in Colorado, but this is chance to get one of the best / hottest pitchers in baseball at lower ownership. His last start was cut short due to weather, but he again, was off to a dominating performance with 6 Ks, 0 earned runs over 4.1 innings. Yes, Colorado is a scary place to pitch but a guy like Bieber, who misses bats at a career 30% rate or higher, can still excel. The Rockies have not been great this season, ranking 27th in wRC+, 20th wOBA and 24th in ISO against right handers. That includes all of thier games at Coors Field. Bieber is on a fantastic run here in June, coming off a easy / light outing a week ago, facing one of the worst teams against right handers in baseball and likely will go underowned. Don't let the stadium affect your choice here.

• Dylan Cease - $8,800 - @ DET - 7.5 O/U

  • Dylan Cease's salary has actually dropped over the last couple of weeks and against Detroit, I believe now is the time to take advantage of it. Keep in mind, his salary dropped after starts against the Rays and Dodgers, where he actually pitched fairly well, allowing 0 earned runs over 9.1 innings - the issue was simply he didn't last very long in either outing. However, tonight he gets a much easier matchup against the Tigers, who are only projected to score 3.45 runs. Detroit is ranked dead last in wRC+, wOBA and ISO when facing right handed pitchers. Meaning they are quite literally, the worst team on paper. Oh, and they strike out the 5th most in baseball in the split, so it is safe to assume this is a soft matchup for someone like Cease. Cease is also pitching well this season, with a 3.21 xFIP and 32.7% K-rate. I like the price but most of all I love the matchup for Cease.

• Max Fried

• Nick Pivetta

BATTERS

• Jose Ramirez - $6,100 - @ COL - @ Senzatela (R - COL)

  • He is the most expensive bat on the slate tonight and for obvious reasons. Jose has been on absolute fire this season, posting a combined 186 wRC+ and .429 wOBA. He gets to enjoy the benefits of Coors Field tonight and is facing Senzatela who isn't that great home or away. When facing lefties (assuming Jose's choice), Senztela has a career 4.83 xFIP coupled with a .342 wOBA. Most importantly, he has a really really low 13.8% K%, meaning balls will be in play and that's great for Jose at Coors Field. If you can afford the salary, it is hard to fade Ramirez tonight at Coors.

• Frank Schwindel - $2,900 - vs. SD - vs. Manaea - (L - SD)

  • With the price tag on Ramirez, we absolutley have to find some value bats tonight and one that immediatley stands out to me is Schwindel. The Cubs are a mess this season and don't have much offense, but that doesn't mean we can't find value bats within the lineup. Schwindel has consistently been starting for them and hitting cleanup (4th), so the price tage of $2,900 becomes very attractive. He has the split advantage tonight, facing the Padre's left hander Manaea and as you might imagine, Schwindel is a much better bat in the split (career 126 wRC+, .359 wOBA and .252 ISO). It's a value play, it's that simple.

• Matt Olson

• Yordan Alvarez

• Vlad Guerrero Jr.

• Trevor Story

• JD Martinez

• Eric Hosmer

STACKS

• Boston Red Sox - 5.60 Earned Runs - vs. Koenig (L - OAK)

  • Boston comes in tonight as the 2nd highest projected scoring team, at home, facing the rookie left hander Koenig. We have very little, if any, metrics on Koenig but his short time in the minors doesnt' stand out as all that impressive. He now gets to pitch in one of the most difficult parks in baseball and will be facing a slaughterhouse of left handed mashing bats including JD Martinez and Trevor Story. Boston overall is Top 10 in almost every category against left handed pitching but most interestingly, when you narrow it down to left handed pitching at home, Boston is 1st in wOBA, wRC+ and ISO. It's going to be tough on the young lefty, so I'm loading up the Boston bats.

• Chicago White Sox - 4.55 Earned Runs - @ Alexander (L - DET)

  • A sneaky lesser priced and owned stack for tonight might include the Chicago White Sox. They are on the road tonight, in Detroit and facing the left hander Tyler Alexander. I was suprised to see the White Sox are first overall in baseball in both wRC+ and wOBA, as a team against left handers. Their ISO rank is 4th. But, when you back up and look, that White Sox lineup is absolutely loaded with right handed bats and guys that historically have mashed left handed pitching. In fact, there is a very real chance that the White Sox (with switch hitters) have 9/9 lineup spots filled by a right handed bat. That is going to be tough for Alexander who has a career .357 wOBA, 4.86 xFIP and 19% K% in the split. Tim Anderson may be out but Abreu, Robert and Pollock all have a great history with the split advantage.

• LA Dodgers

• Atlanta Braves