MLB DFS MAINSLATE BREAKDOWN THURSDAY 6/9/2022

It's Thursday and that means we have a smaller MLB DFS main slate on schedule.  With out 5 total games to choose from, I would say tonight would be one to take a lighter approach on.  There are some legit aces on the mound coupled with a couple of higher run total teams, so it is a nice combination for such a small slate.  

Weather wise, we have good news.  There doesn't seem to be much in the way of rain or anything that should be considered problematic.  I feel as though it's been forever since we could relay that.

DISCLAIMER - Keep in mind, these articles and any associated videos are published early, so that you have a chance to review and set lineups.  Actual lineups likely are not out yet, so please please make sure you check lineups before lock.  Also, please ensure you check weather and potential delays.

PITCHERS

• Gerrit Cole - $10,400 - @ MIN - 8 O/U

  • Gerrit Cole continues to dominate on the mound this season, have amassed 8 straight starts of 22 or more fantasy points. During that span he has pitched no fewer than 6 innings, has 6 starts with 9 or more strikeouts and even in his worst start (allowing 5 earned runs) he still managed 25 fantasy points. The upside, of course, is very real with his crazy strikeout potential and although the Twins linger around top 10 in batting stats against right handed pitching, this isn't the guy any lineup or bat wants to face. Daily Fantasy Nerd is showing him with a 65% chance of Yankees getting the win, only 3.55 projected runs for the Twins and a high 8.5 O/U on strikeouts. On a short slate, he is easily the best option.

• Shohei Ohtani - $8,100 - v BOS - 8 O/U

  • It's crazy to me that Ohtani is only $8,100 tonight, pitching at home against Boston. Look I understand the Angels are a mess right now, can muster a win and Ohtani's last start against the Yankees simply wasn't good, but the salary seems too low to not play him. We all know his upside, he can reach double digit strikeouts any given night and already has a 40 fantasy point performance earlier this season against Houston. I'd be lying if I said he looks like the MVP version of himself we just saw a season ago, he simply doesn't right now. But, he is still an elite pitcher on a short slate priced $8,100. Boston by name may sound scary, but they themselves are middle of the road (or worse) in most metrics vs. right handed pitching. So the matchup isn't scary and it certainly isn't the Yankee lineup he just struggled against. The Angels are actually favored as of this writing, with at 54% chance of winning the game, Boston is projected only 3.60 runs and the O/U for strikeouts is set at 7. All good indicators. Heres to hoping Ohtani can right the ship for the Angels tonight.

• Max Fried

BATTERS

• Whit Merrifield - $4,600 - v BAL - v Zimmerman (L - BAl)

  • Merrifield is certainly not off to the best of season starts of his career, but I'd bet my marbles that he finds a way to turn it around sooner than later. He has always been a player that immediately comes to mind when he has the split matchup and tonight he has just that against Zimmerman. For his career, when facing lefties, Merrifield has produced a 114 wRC+, .341 wOBA and .169 ISO. Meanwhile, the left hander Bruce Zimmerman is generally not having the best of seasons and when facing right handed bats, has allowed a career 4.82 xFIP, .361 wOBA and 16% K%. I'd give you 2022 numbers for him but just trust me, they are worse. He is also coming off a 4 game / start stretch where he allowed a combined 20 earned runs. In this matchup and with lower ownership likely, Merrifield is one of my favorite bats on the night.

• Chad Pinder - $2,500 - @ CLE - @ Pilkington - (L - CLE)

  • It is always tough trying to list out value bats this early in the day, given we don't have lineups released yet. So please understand this can change when lineups are released, new guys could emerge and guys can move up or down in the order. However, I do think its important to communicate some potential value plays and at just $2,500, I think Pinder could emerge as one of them tonight. Pinder has been around for a few years and by no means is an elite bat, but in this particular matchup tonight, I think he could pay off with some value. For his career, Pinder has been a very good hitter when facing a lefty, with a 114 wRC+ and .333 wOBA. Pilkington is the young left handed rookie for the Guardians, who is making just his 7th MLB start and although he has pitched fairly well, he is still very much a green pitcher. Most of his starts this year were just a few innings, if that, as they likely were stretching him out and being extra careful. Each and every start he adds to his pitch count and overall distance. He did start 4 games in AAA this year but wasn't very impressive with a 4.86 xFIP and low 17.5% strikeout rate. Those do seem to be outliers for his minor league career but the key here is Chad Pinder as a value play, who hits left handers fairly well and facing a young rookie pitcher.

• Jared Walsh

• Matt Olson

• Salvador Perez

STACKS

• Kansas City Royals - 4.54 Runs Projected - vs. Zimmerman (L - BAL)

  • I realize the Royals aren't one of the top teams in terms of vegas run total projections, but I just keep coming back to players within their lineup in the matchup vs. Zimmerman. I already mentioned Merrifield, but other players like Salvador Perez (112 wRC+, .337 wOBA, .217 ISO) and Carlos Santana (125 wRC+, .357 wOBA, .167 ISO), have been equally effective in their careers when facing left handers. Now I realize these guys are aging but do we really believe Bruce Zimmerman can tear through this lineup after his most recent performances? I think not. Throw in the young Bobby Witt Jr. and I like a sneaky Royals stack tonight. Buyer beware though, this is a contrarian play / stack (at least I think so) based heavily on getting lower ownership on a small slate. I fully expect the pitchers I mentioned to be heavily owned, so the Royals help offset that. If you're not on board, check out one of the teams listed below as an alternative, albeit higher owned stack.

• New York Yankees

• Atlanta Braves