MLB DFS MAINSLATE BREAKDOWN TUESDAY 7/5/2022

MLB DFS MAINSLATE BREAKDOWN TUESDAY 7/5/2022
Photo Credited : Covering the Corner

Hope ya'll had a wonderful 4th of July and enjoyed some fantastic games, hot dogs and BBQ over the weekend!  Today we are back with a big 12-game MLB DFS slate that has a bunch of things to take into consideration.  With lots of weather on the horizon along with 7 games with a 9+ O/U, this one is shaping up to be a fun one.

Weather - Make sure to pay attention to developments throughout the league, including, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Boston, Atlanta and Chicago.  Each has varying degrees of concern, some will play just fine others likely will get delayed and some could end up getting fully postponed.  

Keep in mind, these articles and any associated videos are published early, so that you have a chance to review and set lineups.  Actual lineups likely are not out yet, so please please make sure you check lineups before lock.  Also, please ensure you check weather and potential delays.

PITCHERS

  • Alex Wood - $9,200 - @ ARI - 9 O/U

    • Weather is having a serious impact on pitching options tonight, so we have to tread carefully. I've listed a couple pitchers below these write-ups that are of interest but for weather. Alex Wood has been around for quite some time and although he isn't as good as he once was, in the right matchup he can still produce. This season his ERA sits at a staggering 5.03 but his xFIP is 3.36 and SIERA is 3.58, suggesting he maybe has just been a bit unlucky. Tonight he gets the Diamondbacks, a team that is ranked 27th in wRC+ and wOBA and 22nd in ISO against left handed pitching this season. So the matchup is good and with very few pitchers in a good weather spot tonight, Alex Wood seemingly looks like a viable option.
  • Cal Quantrill - $8,300 - @ DET - 9 O/U

    • Quantrill is pitching in one of the few games tonight that doesn't have a heavy rain outlook. Personally, I am not overly familiar with this guy, but I can tell you he is a young guy with a good number of MLB innings under his belt thus far to get a good understanding of what he brings to the table. Looking at his metrics, I can't say he has been great, with mixed results this year and in general, a MLB career so far that includes a 4.52 xFIP and low 18.9% K-rate. So why am I recommending him? Well, for one he faces the Tigers tonight, one of the, if not the worst offense in baseball. Second, he is cheap. Third, he is the highest projected raw point scoring pitcher tonight that doesn't have weather concerns, according to Daily Fantasy Nerd. His strikeout total is projected at 4.5 but the Tigers are only projected to score 3.04 runs on the night, the lowest of all teams. Detroit against right handed pitching is ranked dead last in wRC+, runner up to dead last in wOBA and dead last in ISO. Again, elite matchup for a below average cheap salary pitcher. I'll take a chance.
  • Luis Garcia (MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS)

  • Yusei Kikuchi

DFN-Pitchers-75

BATTERS

  • Jose Ramirez - $4,900 - @ DET - @ Hutchison (R - DET)

    • Ramirez's bat has cooled off a bit as of late and not coincidentally, so have the Guardians. That simply means his DFS salary has dropped and now sitting below $5k, I'm interested. He has nothing short of an incredible year at the plate, so we should little doubt he resumes that pace here soon. Tonight might just be the spot to get right against Drew Hutchison, the Tigers 31 year old right hander who has not been able to make much of an impact at the MLB level. Hutchison has a career 4.46 xFIP with a slim 20% K-rate. He also has allowed 12% or higher walk rate over the last couple of years. The numbers jump a bit when he faces left handed bats but the point is, there is absolutely nothing to fear here and in fact, I think this is a great spot for the Guardians as a whole. It should be a great spot for Ramirez who still currently sits as a top 5 bat against right handers on the season. Plus, considering he is over $1,000 cheaper than the likes of Judge, Acuna Jr., Buxton and Alvarez while also being generally cheaper than players like Schwarber, Mullins and Semien, it is just too hard to pass on him tonight.
  • Mookie Betts - $4,400 - vs. COL - vs. Marquez (R - COL)

    • Mookie Betts is back and he is only $4,400. That should be enough to play here right there. If you are scared about his time off, well in his first 2 games back he has gone 3 for 7 with 2 DBs, 1 RBI and 2 Runs. So rust doesn't seem to be an issue. He faces Marquez tonight, who just gave up 5 runs to these same Dodgers in his last start, albeit in Colorado. But even outside of that, overall Marquez hasn't been great this year, sporting 4.53 xFIP, .307 wOBA and 16.2% K% this season and thats only away games. Final point is simply this - its Mookie Betts at $4,400 - play him.
  • Austin Slater

  • Kolten Wong

DFN-Bats-75

STACKS

  • Toronto Blue Jays - 4.86 - @ Martinez (R - OAK)

    • I think the Blue Jays are a bit underpresented tonigth in Oakland. They take on Adrian Martinez who is only making his 3rd MLB start of his career and now gets to face one of the most powerful lineups in all of baseball. The Blue Jays are loaded with right handed power bats but still excel in matchups against right handed pitching. For the season, the Blue Jays are ranked 5th in wRC+, 2nd in wOBA and 6th in ISO. If we focus in on only the last 14 days, those numbers become 1st, 2nd and 6th respectively. A team with these numbers, in a road spot against a very young inexperienced pitcher who just let up 7 runs in his most recent start, is the 10th highest projected run scoring team? It just isn't adding up for me, so I plan to take advantage and stack em up.
  • Cleveland Guardians - 4.94 Earned Runs - @ Hutchison (R - CLE)

    • I mentioned how much I like Jose Ramirez tonight, well that extends to the Guardians lineup as a whole. Hutchison is simply a below average pitcher and is in a tough spot tonight facing a team that has been pretty good against right handed pitching this season. With potentially 5 left handers in tonight's lineup for the Guardians, Hutchison will certainly have his work cut out for him. I think the Guardians offer a good solid stack tonight at a value price tag overall.
  • Atlanta Braves

  • Houston Astros

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Should you want to dig in further and have full access to all of the stats and projections offered throughout these articles, I highly recommend you check out Daily Fantasy Nerd. I include some snippets above and with each article but the projections will adjust as the day progresses and lineups are released. Plus, not all pitchers and bats are revealed! To make sure you get the very best information, please check out the referral link below.