MLB DFS MAINSLATE BREAKDOWN THURSDAY 6/16/2022

Photo Credited : Call to the Pen

Thursday night DFS baseball can really be hit or miss any given week and tonight is no different. There are only 5 games available on the slate with one game having some real potential for weather / rain. My recommendation for these slates is to simply take it easy, adjust accordingly and don't force what isn't there. But that doesn't mean we can't break this skate down and pull out some of our favorite plays.

Weather - Per usual, I am publishing this write up fairly early and as of now the only weather concern seems to be in Washington and it seems pretty significant. So tread carefully and update in Washington and it seems pretty significant. So check-in with your favorite weather source as the day progresses.

DISCLAIMER - Keep in mind, these articles and any associated videos are published early, so that you have a chance to review and set lineups. Actual lineups likely are not out yet, so please please make sure you check lineups before lock. Also, please ensure you check weather and potential delays.

PITCHERS

Shohei Ohtani - $8,200 - @ SEA - 7 O/U
- Even on the road, Ohtani is the obvious play tonight and with that will come with some crazy ownership. I personally will try to find a way to fade that ownership in bigger tournaments, but that doesn't mean he isn't the best pitcher on the slate. The issue with Ohtani this year causing the rollar coaster of performances, in my opinion of course, is that the Angels are burning him out. He is playing a lot of baseball, even when pitching, as soon as he is out of the game, he grabs a bat and is in the the lineup. I'm not saying this guy can't do it, he obviously can but you'd have to think he is playing way more baseball than any other player in the league and naturally, that has to tire him out, especially when pitching. Nonetheless, Seattle is only projected 3.68 runs tonight and Ohtani has a very attractive and slate leading 7 Ks projected. His salary is very affordable and on any other slate if ownership wasn't an issue, I'd be all over this play.
Martin Perez - $9,000 - @ DET - 9 O/U
- Never in my wildest dreams would I have thought I'd be recommending Martin Perez on a DFS main slate, but here we are. Perez has actually been on the few bright spots for the Rangers this season. Prior to his last start, he was a roll, having gone 9 straight starts with 6 or more innings and 2 or fewer earned runs. In fact, 8 of those starts he gave up 1 or less earned runs. We have basically been targeting the Tigers all year with pitchers, so the intent here is to come right back to the well. When facing left handed pitching, the Tigers are 27th in wRC+, 29th in wOBA and 30th in ISO. Keep in mind, that is actually an improvement from their dead last position in every spot when facing a right hander. Great matchup for a veteran pitcher who is having one heck of year. Sign me up on this short slate.
Luis Severino
Zach Wheeler

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BATTERS

Rhys Hoskins - $4,400 - @ WAS - @ Corbin (L - WAS)
- Hoskins gets a good split advantage matchup tonight with Corbin and actually has some good history to back it up. I don't rely to heavily on BvP but when it stands out it stands out and the Hoskins/Corbin pairing has led to Hoskins pretty much dominating (26 AB / .308 AVG / 5 XBH / 2 HR / 2 RBI / 4 BB). Hoskins this season has also been tremendously better when facing a left hander, posting a 181 wRC+, .437 wOBA and .359 ISO. Corbin on the other hand has just been plain old bat, against both sides of the plate. He has allowed a combined 58 Hits / Walks and 27 Runs over his last 6 games. He also isn't missing bats with a 17.5% K-rate. I really like the Phillies tonight generally but also if I had to pick 1 bat, its going to be Hoskins. Keep in mind, weather might be an issue in this game, so keep up to date on that impact.
Giancarlo Stanton - $5,300 - vs. TB - vs. Beeks - (L - TB)
- Stanton has always been a bat you can trust (as far as baseball goes) against left handed pitching. I realize he has been banged up but his salary, in this matchup, seems a bit too low. For his career, Stanton has a 166 wRC+, .415 wOBA and .317 ISO against southpaws - all elite numbers by any metric. Meanwhile Beeks is a pretty much a bullpen guy getting the start. So, the risk here is that Stanton will only get 1 or at most 2 at bats against this guy, completely rendering the RvL analysis useless. But I still think he is underpriced on a team projected to score the 3rd most runs on the slate (4.59) and if you focus on just this season, Stanton has actually been hitting right handers very well, even better than his matchups with left handers. But hopefully he can do some early damage against Beeks, who has given up several runs over the last few starts in limited innings.
Nick Castellanos
Juan Soto
JD Davis
Christian Yelich
Corey Seager
Pete Alonso

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STACKS

Philadelphia Phillies - 5.26 Earned Runs - @ Corbin (L - WAS)
- I talked about Corbin in my Hoskins write-up, but you can generally guess I'm interested in a fully Phillies stack. Now they are the highest run projection on the slate and only team above 5 so far, but Corbin has been so bad this season, it's going to be hard to not stack the Phillies in some fashion. The hestitation is the weather, so please make sure you pay attention. In fact, if it looks bad, it may actually turn into a great fade. Think about it, not only will weather have a direct impact on the bats you choose but if there is a mid game delay or something, that can affect Corbin, who is the sole reason we are stacking the Phillies - so again, be on top of the weather tonight in Washington. That said, read my analysis on Corbin above - just hot garbage. But don't be afraid of left handed bats against him, in fact, if you look at just 2022, Corbin has been equally as bad if not worse in that split. So if all looks good in terms of weather, this is by far my favorite stack. If not, stick to one of the other stacks I have listed below - in order of preferance.
New York Mets
New York Yankees

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If you guy's want to actually check out the Daily Fantasy Nerd optimizer I use to build these write-ups and screenshot throughout, please check out the link below. You'll not only be able to access projections as they update throughout the day but the stacking tool will become more useful once lineups are released and you can optimize your own lineups.