MLB DFS MAINSLATE BREAKDOWN TUESDAY 6/21/2022

MLB DFS MAINSLATE BREAKDOWN TUESDAY 6/21/2022
Photo Credited : Pittsburgh Tribune-Review

Big Tuesday slate on tap for tonight, with 13 games for disposal.  At quick glance, there are few elite pitchers available and a bunch of games with O/Us at or exceeding 9, so this could be a great offensive night.  

Weather - Everything pretty clear tonight with the one exception being San Diego.  

Keep in mind, these articles and any associated videos are published early, so that you have a chance to review and set lineups.  Actual lineups likely are not out yet, so please please make sure you check lineups before lock.  Also, please ensure you check weather and potential delays.

PITCHERS

  • Sean Manaea - $9,000 - vs. ARI - 7 O/U

    • Pitching is a bit suspect today, so be prepared to dig in and do some homework. But I'll start with Manaea who is off to a great start (relatively speaking) to the 2022 season, having posted a 3.65 xFIP to go along with a 25.5% strikeout rate. Similar to Darvish last night, the matchup is the key here against the Diamondbacks who just simply suck on offense. When facing southpaws this season, the Diamondbacks have posted a 26th ranked wRC+, 20th ranked wOBA and 21st ranked ISO. They are also top 10 in strikeout % to boot, so it's a great matchup for any pitcher. Manaea on the otherhand has had a pretty solid season overall, having allowed 3 or less earned runs in 9 of his 12 starts and earlier this season pitched 7 socreless innings with 7 Ks against this same Diamondbacks team on the road. On a slate where you can almost go anywhere with pithcing, Manaea stands out to me as a solid option.
  • Nestor Cortes

  • Rich Hill

DFN-Pitchers-6-21

BATTERS

  • Juan Soto - $5,200 - @ BAL - @ Lyles (R - BAL)

    • As of this writing, Soto is the highest projected scoring batter on the night and for good reason. Not only is he is a split advantage tonight against the right hander Jordan Lyles, but Lyles himself has been a mess all season. Lyles has allowed 14 runs across his last 15.1 innings pitched. He has also struggled against left handed bats this season, allowing a .395 wOBA and 1.78 HR/9. The HR ball has been a killer for him the last couple of years and he has averaged a 1.82 HR/9 to left handers. On the flip, Soto is hitting right handed pitching to the tune of 151 wRC+, .392 wOBA and .268 ISO. Safe to say this is a great road matchup against Lyles and Soto is in a prime spot to be a top performing bat on tonight's slate.
  • Oneil Cruz - $2,000 - vs. CHC - vs. Swarmer - (R - CHC)

    • Cruz still remains only $2,000 and just like last night, he is worth firing up again. He had an excellent 2022 debut (20 FP) and offers a lot of tools for the Pirates. But again, the play is here is simply based on his salary being bare minimu. You don't need much for that to pay off and if he performs even remotely close to last night, he will exceed value in a big way. Oh and the Pirates / Cruz face another young rookie pitcher for the Cubs who has allowed 10 earned runs across his last 2 starts. The weather is also getting pretty hot in Pittsburgh which should help bats - but none of that really matters when the dude is still only $2,000.
  • *Taylor Ward

  • Yordan Alvarez

  • Rafael Devers

  • Jose Ramirez

  • Michael Brantley

  • Robbie Grossman

  • Rafael Ortega

  • Jack Suwinski

  • Juan Yepez

DFN-Bats-6-21

STACKS

  • *Boston Red Sox - 5.51 Earned Runs - vs. Brieske (R - DET)

    • There are a ton of options for stacks tonight but I think I'll be going right back to the well here with the Red Sox. The matchups against these young inexperienced Detroit pitchers are just too attractive to pass up. The Red Sox are again projected to score the most runs as a team tonight but should see lower ownership since this is such a large slate and there are a number of teams with high totals. It's pretty much rinse repeat with yesterday's write up on this team, as they face Beau Brieske, a rookie right hander for the Tigers who owns a 4.63 xFIP / 4.70 SIERA this season compared to his 3.79 ERA. On the surface, standards statistics look good for the youngster, but in reality the difference in xFIP, SIERA and ERA should converge to the negative. There aren't a lot of innings to go off of, so keep that in mind, but he basically gets hit pretty hard consistently, has a low 16.4% strikeout rate and is allowing almost 2 HR/9 this season. The Red Sox meanwhile have been one of the better teams in baseball over the last month, especially when facing right handers. It's worth going back to tonight.
  • *Pittsburgh Pirates - 4.88 Earned Runs - vs. Swarmer (R - CHC)

    • I've thought about this stack a lot and it comes down to a couple of things. First, you hardly ever see the Pirates with a 4.88 run projection. Second, last night they ripped 12 runs at home against another rookie Cubs pitcher. Third, this stack is extermely cheap with all their recent callups and rookies. In particular, Cruz and Suwinski are 2 of the Pirates most recent call ups that look really comfortable at the plate last night. Couple them with solid bats in Hayes and Reynolds and you could see some offense in the right spot. That spot I think can again be tonight. It's amost the same situation as last nights, with the Pirates facing Swarmer, who is making only his 5th MLB start. The Padres were able to beat up on him in his last start and that is a comparable lineup to the Pirates at the moment. But the point is, a young inexperienced rookie is always someone you can look to stack against and the Pirates are offering several key bats at bottom of the pit prices. If you need value, this is the stack tonight.
  • St. Louis Cardinals

  • Houston Astros