MLB DFS MAINSLATE BREAKDOWN MONDAY 6/13/2022

The good news for this Monday MLB DFS slate is that all games are on the main slate, which is something I don't think we have seen in awhile.  The bad news is that we continue to deal with weather concerns across the country.  But, overall for a Monday, its hard to complain about a 10-game slate.  It's an interesting slate for pitching with not one guy standing out at first glance and in terms of offense, we are looking at 5 teams with a projected run total at or above 5.  So it should be a fun one, weather aside.

Weather - as mentioned, there are some concerns, so make sure you stay up to date with whatever weather source you prefer.  As of this early morning write-up, the games to watch include Detroit and Chicago, however it is worth noting that every game with the exception of St. Louis, San Francisco and the indoor games, shows signs of rain.

DISCLAIMER - Keep in mind, these articles and any associated videos are published early, so that you have a chance to review and set lineups.  Actual lineups likely are not out yet, so please please make sure you check lineups before lock.  Also, please ensure you check weather and potential delays.

PITCHERS

• Alek Manoah - $9,800 - v. BAL - 8.5 O/U

  • A couple things stand out here for Alek Manoah. The first, and most obvious, is that he is pitching at home indoors - so we get to eliminate weather concerns completely. Secondly, the young Blue Jays pitcher is off to a fantastic start to his career and the 2022 season, look like the teams best pitcher to date. We'd like to see his 22.% career K% tick up a bit but all in due time, this is a guy that pushed a 40% K% in the minors. He also limits hard contact, has a fairly low flyball rate and keeps the ball in the park. All this to say, his 4 straight starts of 20+ fantasy points is fairly justified. He also is facing Baltimore tonight, who is projected to score the lowest amount of runs on the slate at 3.11. Baltimore ranks bottom 10 in baseball in wRC+ and wOBA against right handers while ranking middle of the pack in ISO. It's a good matchup and fairly solid salary for a pitcher who could just be getting started on a great career.

• Alex Wood - $8,300 - v KC - 8 O/U

  • This next selection was a bit more difficult and although I think Aaron Nola is a fine option tonight, he is over $10k in salary and likely will be heavily owned. Thus, I landed on Alex Wood, who is coming off 3 solid starts for the Giants and is having an overall good year so far, sporting a 3.12 xFIP. At this stage in his career, Wood isn't going to catch anyone off guard, but he does offer a very stable floor which I think is needed on this shorterish, weather problematic, limited pitcher slate. The plus here is that his opponent, the Royals, have been bottom 1/2 of MLB against southpaws. For the season and when facing left handers, the Royals are 21st in wRC+, 22nd in wOBA and 18th in ISO. The game tonight is also in San Francisco, which has always been a very pitcher friendly park. The strikeout upside really isn't there with Wood but a 3.49 run projection for the Royals and home pitching advantage, I like him at his salary to help build out more stacked lineups tonight.

• Yu Darvish (Watch Weather)

• Aaron Nola

• Mike Minor

BATTERS

• Matt Olson - $4,700 - @ WAS - @ Gray (R - WAS)

  • Olson is actually projected to be the 2nd highest raw point scorer for a bat tonight on Daily Fantasy Nerd. When you couple that with his salary, he also then is coming is as one of the better value plays overall too. Over the last couple of weeks, Olson has seen his spot in the Braves lineup but from 5-6 to 4th, giving him more opportunity in that stacked offense. We don't know a whole lot about his opponent, Gray, but the metrics tell us he is a pitcher that for his short career has struggled against left handed bats, sporting a .377 wOBA, 5.74 xFIP and 22.8% K%. Most shockingly, he has aallowed 2.75 HR/9 against left handed bats. That's where Olson comes in, a left handed bat that has tremendous power (.265 ISO) when facing right handed pitching. It's almost a match made in Heaven, especially at Olson's salary.

• Juan Soto - $5,100 - vs. ATL - vs. Anderson - (R - ATL)

  • Relative to the start of this season and really the last couple of seasons, I think Soto is underpriced at $5,100. This is a guy that is regularily priced towards the top of $5k range and often above it, so we may have to take advantage of the bargain before it gets too late. This hasn't been his best season so far, but we are talking about a guy that was scorching hot for several years, and now he has simply come back down to Earth a bit. He still is one of the best bats in baseball, so lets calm down. What I am seeing for 2022 though, is that he still is absolutely out of this world when facing right handed pitchers. In the split, Soto has a 158 wRC+, .401 wOBA and .272 ISO. But what stands out to me is the low 14% K-rate, which lines up well in this matchup with Anderson. Anderson is young but so far has established himself as a low K% pitcher (19.6% - 2022). Taken together, balls should be in play for Soto tonight and at his price tag, I am extremely interested.

• Jesus Aguilar - $2,100 - @ PHI - @ Nola - (R - PHI)

  • Aguilar's salary is just absurdly low, nearly bare minimum for a guy that will be hitting in the heart of a lineup. Yes, it is Miami's lineup and yes, he is facing the best on-paper pitcher of the night but sometimes you just have to take the value price. He really doesn't have to do much and if we are following my recommendations above, if Aguilar finds a way to hit a bomb or do some damage, it could be a huge bump for our lineups given the value price on him and the fact it would ba damaging to Nola owners. Again though, this is simply about a very cheaply priced power bat that can easily pay off value.

• Bryce Harper

• Manny Machado

• Vlad Guerrero Jr.

• Alex Bregman

• Jose Altuve

• Kyle Schwarber

• Joc Pederson

STACKS

• Houston Astros - 5.06 Earned Runs - @ Hearn (L - TEX)

  • I just have an odd feeling that the Astro's get lost tonight in the shuffle, given then are ranked 4th in terms of a projected run total. However, as a whole, they still sit above 5 in terms of a run projection, which on any given night is a wonderful total to follow. They are also on the road, which is always favorable when picking a stack and in Texas, which is still a Top 10 hitters park (runs and HRs), even after the adjustments and enclosure that was added. I also love the fact that they are facing a left handed pitcher tonight and we all know the Astros are loaded with players that crush southpaws. Altuve, Bregman and Alvarez all sport a 142 or higher wRC+ and a .376 or higher wOBA in the split. It is also worth noting that Hearn has been bad, especially against right handers where he shows a 5.16 xFIP, .348 wOBA 18.9% K-Rate and 1.26 HR/9. It is a wonderful spot for the Astros lineup tonight on the road in Arlington.

• Toronto Blue Jays

• Atlanta Braves