MLB DFS MAINSLATE BREAKDOWN FRIDAY 6/17/2022

MLB DFS MAINSLATE BREAKDOWN FRIDAY 6/17/2022
Photo Credited : Sportsnaut

There is a very nice 12-game main slate on schedule for tonight, with a good combination of quality pitchers and high run scoring teams.  There are some slight weather concerns but overall, this looks to be a great slate and one we can make an impact on.

Weather - It's almost impossible to write-up a slate without mentioning some form of rain or weather and tonight is no different.  Publishing this as early as I do, right now nothing looks too serious, with Boston being the main culprit followed by Colorado.

DISCLAIMER - Keep in mind, these articles and any associated videos are published early, so that you have a chance to review and set lineups.  Actual lineups likely are not out yet, so please please make sure you check lineups before lock.  Also, please ensure you check weather and potential delays.

PITCHERS

  • Carlos Rodon - $9,900 - @ PIT - 7.5 O/U

    • Rodon right now is the highest projected raw point scoring pitcher on the slate, according to Daily Fantasy Nerd. For good reason, as he travels to Pittsburgh to face the Pirates who, quite frankly, haven't been able to muster up any sort of offense in the month of June. Most teams are heating up with the weather, Pirates have found a way to go the other way. In fact, over their last 4 series, the Pirates have averaged around 2.7 runs scored, with many of those games showing only 1-2 runs. For the month of June they have been bad, but also for the season, they have been terrible when facing a left handed pitcher, like Rodon. You are looking at a team ranked 28th in wRC+, 25th in wOBA and 14th in ISO when facing a southpaw. Most importantly, they strike out the 3rd most in the matchup. So this leaves a ton of upside, with minimal risk, for Rodon. He has been pretty good this year and is coming off a 6 inning, 0 earned runs, 8 strikout game against a tough Dodgers team. He has touched double digit strikeouts 2x this season already and has very juicy 30+% K% on the season as a whole. He sits as my favorite pitcher on the slate.
  • Jon Gray - $6,900 - @ DET - 8 O/U

    • We started freaking Martin Perez last night against this same Tiger's lineup and it resulted in goodness, so why not rinse repeat here with Jon Gray. Now, I think Gray is a much better pitcher than Perez, but agian, it really doesn't matter, the Tigers are so bad, as long as the pitcher is competent, I'm looking to start him against that lineup. I won't spend too much time breaking it down, but even though the Tigers aren't facing a southpaw in Gray, they are equally as bad against right handers, ranking dead last in wRC+, wOBA and ISO while also striking out the 5th most in baseball. Gray has actually had really great starts in 2 of his last 3, with double digit strikeouts against the White Sox and Rays. So there is upside here, the matchup is great and the price is super afforable.
  • Tarik Skubal

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BATTERS

  • Luke Voit - $3,800 - @ COL - @ Freeland (L - COL)

    • It almost doesn't matter who the pitcher is that he is facing, Luke Voit at $3,800, hitting 4th, in a plus split matchup, in Colorado, is just simply too cheap and should be played. I'm not saying he has been good this, really the Padres as a whole haven't but he has been putting up numbers in his most recent series against the Cubs. In that series, he had 5 Hits, 3 Doubles, 2 HRs and 7 RBI. Tonight he will get a split advantage against the southpaw Freeland, who for his career when pitching at home against right handed bats, has allowed a 4.51 xFIP, .354 wOBA, 16.7% K% and 1.39 HR/9. It is a juicy spot for any bat, but definately when the bat has power and is at this salary.
  • Kyle Schwarber - $4,600 - @ WAS - @ Espino - (R - WAS)

    • The Phillies have been red hot in June and a big reason why is due to the bat of Schwarber. In the month of June alone, he has 16 Hits, 7 HRs and 14 RBI. Although his traditional stats may not show it, if you focus again in just June (33 at bats), Schwarber has an insane 258 wRC+, .522 wOBA and .536 ISO when facing right handers. And trust me, even if I take the numbers against both left and right handers, they are still absolutely elite. Now, we all know those numbers aren't sustainable but they are a clue as to how good he has been this month. That should continue tonight against Espino, who little did I know, has been around a long time in baseball, just not MLB. He is 35 and has spent the vast majority of his career in the minors. Simply put, he isn't that good and is hardly anyone to worry about. Schwarber has a chance to keep the hot bat going.
  • Manny Machado

  • Santiago Espinal

  • Nelson Cruz

  • Rafael Devers

  • Christian Walker

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STACKS

  • Philadelphia Phillies - 6.28 Earned Runs - @ Espino (R - WAS)

    • Philly has just been so hot this month, it's prudent to just keep riding their offense. We stacked them again last night and boy did it pay off against the southpaw Corbin. Tonight, they get to face arguably a worse pitcher / journeyman / long time minor league 35 year old pitcher in Espino. He is a right hander, so players like Harper will immediatley have a leg up. Espino has pitched a lot this year out of the bullpen and it looks like his longest outing was his most recent at 53 pitches, so I don't expect him to go much beyond, but that's ok. The Nationals bullpen has been a mess and has one of the top 5 worst ERAs in baseball. That bullpen has also been used a lot lately, having pitched 5.2 innings last night and a bunch more over the previous Braves series. Whether its Espino or arms out of this dead bullpen, I am back on the train tonight with the Phillies.
  • LA Dodgers

  • Toronto Blue Jays

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