MLB DFS MAINSLATE BREAKDOWN FRIDAY 6/10/2022

It's Thursday and we have for the first time in a long while, a complete - no game missing, main slate ahead of us tonight.  This includes 15 total games for the slate and although there are a couple weather spots to keep an eye, it certainly isn't as dooming as previous days and weeks.  With a slate this big, there are some exciting spots to explore, with several high priced and well playing pitchers along with 6 or more games with a O/U of 8.5 or more.

Weather wise, there are a couple spots to mention but as of this writing, they all should play to some degree.  In order of concern, this includes St. Louis (by far the worst outlook), Kansas City, Chicago, Detroit and Minnesota.  Just keep an eye on them, particularly if you have any interest in their respective pitchers.

DISCLAIMER - Keep in mind, these articles and any associated videos are published early, so that you have a chance to review and set lineups.  Actual lineups likely are not out yet, so please please make sure you check lineups before lock.  Also, please ensure you check weather and potential delays.

PITCHERS

• Luis Severino - $10,300 - v. CHC - 8.5 O/U

  • After a couple of injury prone years, Luis Severino is off to a pretty solid start to 2022. He is also coming off his best start of the season, where he accumulated 38+ fantasy points, pitching 7 scoreless innings against the Tigers with 10 strikeouts and allowing only 1 hit and 1 walk. That has resulted in his price taking a pretty significant climb but he again has a really good matchup tonight at home vs. the Cubs. The Cubs this season are pretty brutal and when facing right handed pitching, pretty much rank middle of the pack or worse in advanced metrics. The Cubs are only projected to score 3.26 runs on the night and Severino has the slate highest projected strikeout total at 7. All things are looking positive tonight for Severino and not only is he Daily Fantasy Nerds top raw projected scoring pitcher, but my favorite on the night.

• Triston McKenzie - $8,800 - v OAK- 7.5 O/U

  • The good news for tonight is that we have some very apparent value at the pitcher position and that starts with the Guardian's McKenzie. With a salary of $8,800, he helps you fit some of the other more expensive pitchers and/or larger stacks into your lineups. But it's not just his salary, McKenzie has actually pitched very well this season. He has pitched 7 or more innings in each of his last 4 starts, averging 2.75 earned runs and 4.75 strikeouts per start. Now, he is a low strikeout guy, sporting a 22% K% this season but that number is a bit low for his career, so hopefully it will see an uptick here soon. Regardless, he is priced very well in terms of salary and more importantly, is in an excellent matchup against the Oakland A's. The A's rank close or dead last in MLB in almost every stat category against right handers. We are talking 29th in wRC+, 30th in wOBA and 29th in ISO. They also strikeout the 7th most in baseball, which should help offset some of McKenzie's lower totals. Finally, McKenzie faced them earlier this season in Oakland and put a great 6.1 inning, 0 earned run and 7 K outing for 28+ fantasy points. I think it again looks to be a great spot tonigtht for McKenzie, who should be able to pay off major value at his price tag.

• Aaron Ashby

• Jose Berrios

• Joe Musgrove

BATTERS

• Yordan Alvarez - $6,100 - vs. MIA - vs. Lopez (R - MIA)

  • Alvarez is the 3rd most expensive bat on tonight's slate and one that will be difficult to fit into all lineups, but he has been nothing short of on fire for last couple of weeks. He has hit safely in 9 of his last 10 games, with 7 of those games producting double digit hits. He has added 5 HRs over the time period with 13 RBIs. Just crazy numbers for the young slugger and the reason he is priced so steeply. But I'm interested in riding the wave as he gets another great matchup tonight against the right hander Lopez. Although Lopez has pitched very well this far into the season, there is a slightly different picture to be described when he has a split disadvantage against left handed bats like Alvarez. There is an 8% difference (drop) in strikeout rate against lefties and his HR/9 rate nearly quadruples to 1.17. He also has seen some of his worst starts coming in the last 3, with 2 games allowing 4 earned runs. There is risk here as with anything, but I don't see that much ownership on Alvarez tonight and he simply is one of the hottest bats in baseball right now. Oh and by the way, Alvarez has been absolutely smashing right handed pitching in 2022, with an absurd 222 wRC+, .473 wOBA and out of this world .398 ISO.

• Jack Suwinski - $2,200 - @ ATL - @ Strider - (R - ATL)

  • I felt since I just gave out a $6,100 bat it would be prudent to follow that up with a value bat, since we surely will need them on tonight's slate. This is always difficult this early in the morning, since value bats are largely dependent on lineups, but one guy that has been getting a lot of starts with the Pirates and playing fairly well is Jack Suwinksi. Now, we don't stack Pirates, it just is not a profitable move, but there are occasionally some cheap value bats that can be had from their lineup. Suwinski is the guy tonight and I honestly can't see them benching him as he has been hot for the last week +. Coincidentally, like Alvarez, he has a hit in 9 of his last 10 games and is coming off back to back games with a HR. He is a rookie, so we don't have a whole lot of data or info to go off of, but as mentioned for his cheap value price tag, anything close to what he has been producing of late will suffice. He has the split advantage tonight against the right hander Strider. At his salary, we don't need much so heres to hoping he keeps that streak rolling tonight in Atlanta.

• Jared Walsh

• Bryce Harper

• Nelson Cruz

• JD Martinez

• Trevor Story

• Vlad Guerrero Jr.

• Tony Kemp

STACKS

• New York Yankees - 5.24 Runs Projected - vs. Miley (L - CHC)

  • It's pretty simple, Wade Miley is not a great pitcher and is facing one of the greatest and most powerful lineups in baseball tonight. 5 seasons ago he was a pitcher I looked to stack against and nothing is changing going into his age 35 season. The Yankees are absolutely loaded with power right handed bats and if we go back 3 years for Wade Miley against right handed bats he sports an xFIP well over 4, wBOA approaching 4 and he allows at least 1 HR/9. Not great numbers. He has faced 3 legitimately bad teams / lineups to start his season and has been pretty bad overall. It looks like everyone including Stanton will be in tonight's lineup. I can't imagine how the Yankees must feel seeing him on the mound tonight.

• Milwaukee Brewers - 4.53 Runs Projected - @ Erick Fedde (R - WASH)

  • The Brewers are standing out to me as a lower owned stack that I have interest in. They have a decent total that falls in the middle of tonight's large slate, which should have them a bit lost and underowned. Their opponent, Fedde for the Nationals, just simply hasn't been that great . . . ever. We are talking about a career 4.48 xFIP, 18% K% and 1.50 HR/9. When picking stats, I focus a lot on the K%, which is a great indicator of whether bats will be missed (obviously). What we have here with Fedde is a guy who simply doesn't miss bats, gives up a ton of hard hits (40% +) and as a result, allows a lot of HRs. What more could you want for your lineup? The Brewers were off to a really slow start to the season, but have certainly found a way to improve. They now are top half of the league in wRC+, rank 10th in wOBA and 4th in ISO when facing right handed pitching. It's a sneaky stack, that I like tonight.

• Toronto Blue Jays

• LA Dodgers