MLB DFS MAINSLATE BREAKDOWN TUESDAY 6/7/2022

There is a big (13 game) messy weather slate ahead of us tonight in MLB DFS with a great combination of high profile pitchers and teams with high run projections.  It will take some caution to navigate the slate but we should be able to find some good players and stacks to succeed this evening.

Weather wise, I'm just going to list out games to keep an eye on that have at least some potential for problems.  This includes: Cleveland, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Atlanta and Kansas City.  Caution with these games is an understatement.  

DISCLAIMER - Keep in mind, these articles and any associated videos are published early, so that you have a chance to review and set lineups.  Actual lineups likely are not out yet, so please please make sure you check lineups before lock.  Also, please ensure you check weather and potential delays.

PITCHERS

I'm going to just start this section off by saying most of the top end pitchers are not making the cut for me for a number of reasons. Seattle has actually been a pretty solid team overall vs. right handers and Verlander has been up and down when pitching against them 3x this year already. Kyle Wright, Tarik Skubal and Alek Manoah all have legit rain / weather issues to deal with. Yu Darvish, although cheap, is facing the Mets who have been one of the top 3 teams vs. right handers on the year. Take all of that for what it is and make your own decisions based on risk.

• Carlos Rodon - $13,000 - v. COL - 8 O/U

  • After several good years with the White Sox, Rodon is off to a great 1st season with the Giants. He has pitched very good this season thus far, flexing a 3.30 xFIP, which is atually lower than his 3.44 ERA. Moreover, his strikeout rate is up (30.4%) and walk rate is down (8.6%). He even had a home start earlier this season, dominating tonight's opponent, the Rockies, to the tune of 6 innings, 2 earned runs and 12 total Ks. Fortunately, he gets to face them again in San Francisco tonight, a very pitcher friendly park. Obviously, the most attractive piece of the pie here is the K potential. All metrics are showing Rodon with some major upside in this category. His opponent, the Rockies, have actually been pretty solid this season vs. left handed pitching but as with most years, their ISO and power drops drastically when on the road. With a lot of bad matchups and weather concerns for the other higher priced pitchers, Rodon stands out as my favorite high priced arm on the night.

• Jameson Taillon - $9,500 - @ MIN - 8.5 O/U

  • New York has just been thriving off of former Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers and Taillon looks be another guy added to that list. He is coming off of his 3rd consecuative great start, having pitched 2 straight 8 inning games, while allowing only 1 run in those 2 starts. He isn't necessarily a guy that offers major upside in the K department but he is a very solid consistent pitcher who generates more ground balls than fly balls (44% / 34%) and prevents hard contact (30%). For the season, his K% sits at 19.6% which is a little low for his career but not far off from his average. Although the Twins have been pretty solid against right handers on the season, I'm thinking about taking the hot hand / arm in Taillon at a reasonable price tonight. Beyond him, if you are trying to avoid weather issues and bad matchups, you are going to start dumpster diving.

• Garrett Whitlock - $6,900 - @ LAA - 8.5 O/U

  • We need to find value tonight on the slate at pitcher, at least if we want to stack some of the more expensive teams, and the one name I keep coming back to is Garrett Whitlock for the Red Sox. I'm usually hesitant to stack take a pitcher against the Angels, but honestly, that is turning out to be more of a internal false belief than something that is substantiated by data. After starting the season hot, the Angels have dropped a crazy 12 straight games and over that losing streak have average only 2.91 runs/game. They have had a couple games pop off for 7, 10 and 5 runs but by and large you are staring at a team that has scored 0-2 runs in 7 of their last 12 games. On the season, they still rank top 10 in major stats v. right handed pitching but if you focus over last 14 days, those numbers drop hard, like bottom 5 MLB hard. More importantly, the Angels are striking out a lot v. right handers, at 25% on the season which is ranked 3rd most in MLB - giving a boost to any right hander facing them. Now there isn't anything special about Whitlock and he is pitching on the road, but the Angels ballpark is much more pitcher friendly than in Boston and this will be his second outing v. the Angels, with him pitching against them in Boston in May to the tune of 5 innings, 2 earned runs and 9 Ks. I will take that all day everyday for $6,900 and thats the key here. I believe Whitlock can easily hit value and offer some much needed salary relief this evening for your lineups.

BATTERS

• Bryce Harper - $5,100 - @ MIL - @ Alexander (R - MIL)

  • I tend to follow and eventually favor elite bats when their salary falls too low and I think that is the case here with Mr. Harper. At $5,100, Harper's salary is now as low as it has been since last summer. Feel free to check my math. We know what he is and what he can do, so in my humble opinion, its time to start taking a swing with him at these prices. The good news is he is coming off a pretty hot series v. the Angels, where he went 4/13 with 3 HRs. Yet his price again dropped. There is nothing special in the pitcher he is facing as Alexander has made only 1 other start this season for the Brewers, where he gave up 2 earned on 7 hits with only 3 Ks. Harper with have the split advantage here and although we have limited data on Alexander, we know that he was hit often and hard by left handers in his first start.

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - $4,700 - @ KC - @ Keller - (R - KC)

  • Another guy that's salary just seems a bit underpriced relative to the field is Vlad Jr. He has been on an absolute tear the last week, having hit safely in each of the last 6 games with 4 HRs and 6 RBIs over that same game span. Tonight he faces Brad Keller who has really been struggling over his last few starts. In particular, Keller has allowed 39 hits, 22 earned runs and 10 walks over his last 5 starts. Not good. Add in the fact he really isn't striking anyone out and the 5.47 projected Blue Jays run total is starting to make sense. I'm firing up Vlad Jr. tonigth at a great price and in a great matchup. NOTE: RAIN IS A LEGIT CONCERN IN THIS GAME - BATS ARE USUALLY SAFER THAN PITCHERS BUT AGAIN, THIS PLAY HINGES ON THE KELLER MATCHUP AS WELL AS THE GAME OBVIOUSLY PLAYING - SO PAY ATTENTION TO WEATHER.

• Kyle Schwarber

• Cavan Biggio

• Tony Kemp

• Ronald Acuna

• Austin Riley

STACKS

Giving out a few stacks here considering all of the unknown weather issues. Keep an eye out as things can change drastically.

• Philadelphia Phillies - 4.21 Runs Projected - @ Alexander (R - MIL)

  • Milwaukee has always been an incredible park for offensive output and with a young rookie pitcher on the mound, I think this could be a sneaky spot for the Phillies to get back on track. They have obviously had some turnover in managers lately but honestly as an offense, have been on first the last couple of games. In fact, their most recent series v. the Angels saw them put up 26 runs in a 3-game series. They could potentially load up their lineup tonight with some powerful left handed bats and force the rookie pitcher to grind through some difficult split matchups. If you go into some of his minor league seasons, nothign really stands out. He is 29 years old, been in the minors since 2017 and most recently had a 4.07 xFIP 17.5% K% in AAA. I think Harper and company have a very good chance tonight to put up a 4th straight crooked number game.

• Houston Astros - 4.84 Runs Projected - v. Flexen (R - SEA)

  • The Astros offer a weather safe stack tonight against Seattle's Chris Flexen and honestly, it's a great spot with the lineup already being released. This will already make Flexen's 4th start against the Astros on the year, with a mixed bag of results. Looking at the released lineup, the Astros will have 4 left handers in the lineup today, with 3 being in the top 5 spots. Previous years may suggest the Astros are right handed heavy and excel v. left handed pitchers, but this year paints a different picture. With players like Brantley, Alvarez and Tucker, the Astros actually rank 4th in wRC+, 6th in wOBA and 3rd in ISO v. right handed pitching. They are also hardly striking out, making this a great stack overall v. a guy with a career 5.07 xFIP and low 16.2% K%. The projected run total may not be above 5, but I can easily see the Astros hitting the over tonight at home.

• Atlanta Bravevs - 5.47 Runs Projected - v. Irvin (L - OAK)

  • Atlanta leads the slate tonight with a 5.47 run projection and for good reason. To start, this team crushes left handed pitching, ranking Top 5 in wRC+ and wOBA. They also rank 1st in baseball with a .200 ISO. Look, I'm sure Cole Irwin will be just fine as a pitcher, but as a young left hander, this is not the lineup you want to be facing. For his career, when facing Irvin holds a 4.89 xFIP v. right handed bats and only a 15.8% strikeout rate. He has allowed a 1.22 HR/9 rate in the matchups and honestly those numbers aren't much better even in favorable splits v. left handers. Point is, weak young left handed pithcer facing one of the leagues most prominant left handed lineups. Similar deal as stated below for Blue Jays however, watch the weather. This is one of the lesser concerning games but still is a major concern overall and one I would stay away from if it looks to be bad.

• Toronto Blue Jays - 5.42 Runs Projected - @ Keller (R - TOR)

  • Essentially just copy and paste everything said about Vlad Jr. and insert it here for the entire Blue Jays lineup. Again, weather is a concern, but I thought I would communicate if it is good to play, I love the Blue Jays.