MLB DFS Mainslate Breakdown - 5/26/22

Welcome to a watered down Thursday in MLB DFS.  Tonight's is shaping up to be a overall solid slate, with a good combination of high profile pitchers on the mound as well as some very solid offensive outlooks.

Some quick notes.  There are some seriously bad weather spots tonight, most notably in Chicago, Atlanta, St. Louis and Detroit.  Most of my recommendations will be staying away from these games but please make sure you check weather updates prior to lock.

PITCHERS

• Shoehei Ohtani - $8,700 - v TOR - 7.5 O/U

  • Ohtani takes the mound tonight at home vs. a dangerous Blue Jays lineup, but don't let that deter you from considering him. He remains the highest projected raw point scoring pitcher on the night and has a very healthy and slate leading vegas strikeout projecting of 7.5. The Blue Jays are middle of the pack so far this year with a 22.2% K% vs. right handed pitching but more importantly, are bottom 1/2 of MLB in wOBA and WRC+ vs. righties. Yes, this is a scary lineup at times but Ohtani is off to a great start to the season, we all know his offers incredible strikeout upside and as of this moment, the Blue Jays are statistically not as dangerous as many proclaim as hinted by their 3.61 run projection on the night. More importantly, the $8,700 price tag on DraftKings ranks 7th on this slate, making Ohtani a great value relative to the field.

• German Marquez - $6,200 - @ WAS - 8.5 O/U *

  • This is admittably a difficult play to consider but hear me out. We have potentially 4 awful weather games ahead of us tonight. Meaning, 8 total starters are legit in question due to weather. So what does that leave us with? German Marquez, one of my favorite pitchers over the last few years - someone that I believe is handicapped by his home field disadvantage but that otherwise is a very solid pitcher. He is at a price tonight where I believe you can take advantage of what he has to offer. Although he is on the road, vegas has his strikeout total at a healthy 5 and we have seen him in past years with an away K% float between 22-25% but reach as high as 28%. Meaning if he gets going in the right spot, he does offer 7-9 K upside. Fortunately for him, the Nationals might be the team to attack, ranking bottom 1/2 of the league in wOBA and WRC+ vs. right handers and showing absolutely no power with 26th ranked ISO. If he can limit the damage from Soto, tonight should be a good outing for Marquez.

• Martin Perez

• Patrick Corbin

BATS

• Freddie Freeman - $5,900 - @ ARI - v Castellanos

  • The Dodgers have the highest run projection on the night at 5.37, so we know we want to get a piece of the action, especially on a night where weather is a major issue. Freeman is Freeman and doens't need much justification, especially when he has the split advantage. Castellano isn't having the worst season but definately opens up vs. left handed bats. For his short career, Castellanos has a awful 5.55 xFIP, absymal 13.9% K and allow 1.60 HR/9 to lefties. Lets just include one of the leagues best left handed bats into our lineups tonight.

• Byron Buxton - $5,800 - v KC - v Lynch

  • We again, don't have very many options tonight if the goal is to try to stay away from the rain. That brings to light Byron Buxton, who should continue to lead off for the Twins tonigth at home v Lynch. He has the split advantage with Lynch being a lefty and althought Buxton's stats don't immediately scream play him, he has been much better batting right vs. left handers. For 2022, in a fairly limited sample size, Buxton has 231 WRC+, .486 wOBA and .500 ISO. Will those numbers sustain? Absolutely not, but they at least shed some light into how he has been performing with the right split advantage. Lynch by the way, not great vs. righties - boosting a career 5.20 xFIP, .362 wOBA and 1.31 HR/9.

• Trea Turner

• Mike Trout

• Daulton Varsho

• Carlos Correa

• Kyle Garlick

• Carlos Santana

• Chad Pinder

STACKS

• LA Dodgers - 5.37 Run Projection - v Castellanos

  • This is the obvious stack of the night with the Dodgers not only being a standard stack most nights but also given the fact we have a truncated slate due to weather and them boosting by far the highest projected run total on the slate. Gear up for some high ownership but I don't think you should avoid this team. Just try to find creative ways to lower ownership.

• Minnesota Twins - 4.48 Run Projection - v Lynch

  • With the 3rd highest run total on the night, the Twins are shaping up to be a great overall stack against the Royal's young pitcher Lynch. They have already seen Lynch 2x this season, both in KC (pitchers park) and with mixed results. In total, Lynch has amassed a whooping 8.2 innings vs. the Twins this season, allowed 9 hits, 4 earned runs and only 4 Ks. Now he moves to one of the countries most batter dominant parks in Minnesota to face the Twins for a 3rd time in just a few weeks. I give the edge to the bats here - especially considering the value bats included.