MLB DFS MAINSLATE BREAKDOW 5/31/2022

It's officially the final day of May, as we round into some June MLB action. For tonight's main slate, we are looking at a pretty significant 12 game slate with some minimal weather concerns. There is a solid combination of pitchers on the slate, coupled with a few high projected run scoring games, including a Colorado home series.

In terms of weather, the only real notable game to pay attention to is coincidentally the Colorado game. It looks like there is certainly some rain expected during that game, so make sure you pay attention as we approach lock.

PITCHERS

Kevin Gausman - $9,700 - v. CWS - 7.5 O/U
- A few years ago I would have never guessed Gausman would eventually find his groove and become one of the better starters in baseball, but yet here we are with him leading tonight's slate as the highest raw projected point scoring pitcher. This is for good reason, as Guasman has been nothign short of excellent this season for the Blue Jays. He has amassed 4 starts so far this season with 29 or more DK points and overall has allowed no more than 3 earned runs in any of his starts. His worst starts simply lacked strikeouts, as he has avoided major damage and pitched deep into games. He does have strikeout potential, hitting 8 or more Ks in 6 of his 9 starts on the season. This has led to an excellent 29.3% K-rate on the season coupled with a 2.4 xFIP. More importantly, he has kept the ball in the park, sporting a .16 HR/9 metric. Tonight, at home, he faces a pretty solid White Sox team on paper but one that has struggled this season vs. right handed pitching. The White Sox are ranked 28th in MLB with a 82 WRC+ vs. righties. The stats don't improve much in other categories as they also ranked 28th in wOBA and 27th in ISO. Note, a win might be tough to come by as he faces off against Giolito who himself will be a challange to score runs against. But overall, I think Gausman remains a good play on tonight's slate, pitching well so far this season, offering great K upside and in a very solid matchup vs. a team that has yet to hit right handers effectively.
Julio Urias - $9,100 - v. PIT - 8.5 O/U
- It was difficult to find a true value pitcher for tonight's slate, so we may have to navigate and find value in bats and stacks. That said, coming down a few hundred bucks in salary has led me to Urias for the Dodgers. He isn't a guy that thrills MLB DFS players too often but pitching at home tonight vs. the lowly Pirates could turn out to be a very solid play. I would say so far Urias is having a very typical season and is a guy that offers 5-6 innings, limits damage and has limited K upside. That's not overly enticing however I just don't like very many other options tonight. The attractive part of this play is the matchup vs. the Pirates. When facing left handers, the Pirates rank 25th in WRC+ (84), 25th in wOBA (.287) and 18th in ISO (.139). They also strikeout at a 22.7% rate, which ranks in the top half of baseball. Finally, Urias, like most pitchers, does historically pitch much better at home, elevating some of his numbers. It's an ideal matchup for most pitchers and I think a safe play tonight should be looking to go his way.
Christian Javier
Charlie Morton
Eric Lauer

BATS

Andrew McCutchen - $3,300 - @ CHC - v. Steele
- The former MVP and giver of winning seasons in Pittsburgh is projected to be the highest scoring raw bat on tonight's slate by Daily Fantasy Nerd. Couple this with the fact he is priced at only $3,300 only adds to playability of his bat. Although he isn't quite the same bat as yesteryear, McCutchen has always been able to smash left handed pitchers and he and the Brewers get that tonight against the Cubs and Justin Steele. Steele is only in his 2nd MLB season and has so far had mixed results. He has flashed the ability to go 6 innings but also has only lasted a couple several times. He has flashed some K upside with a 10 K outing at the Diamondbacks but also has several 1-2 K games. So it's fair to say he is somewhat all over the place to start his young career and that is something we want to take advantage of. McCutchen is a career 156 WRC+, .403 wOBA and .243 ISO vs. left handers - while Steele has allowed a .345 wOBA to right handed bats with 1.66 HR/9. Its a great spot for one of the leagues best left handed mashers, so I'm firing McCutchen up tonight, especially at his price.
Ronald Acuna Jr. - $6,100 - @ ARI - v. Castellanos
- Now for an expensive bat. Acuna doesn't need much of an introduction or justification to play him any given night but tonight is a night I'm definately looking to fit him into some lineups. His price is elevated but the matchup v. Castellanos is ideal. Castellanos is sporting a 4.72 xFIP on the season and has basically been unable to strike anyone out with a mere 15.7% K-rate. Pitching in Arizona v. one of MLB's most potent lineups and someone like Acuna could be disasterous, so lets take advantage of that. When facing legit lineups most recently such as the Dodgers and Cardinals, Castellanos has allowed 11 earned runs across 2 games. It's hot in Arizona and should they decide to leave the roof open tonight, the ball could and should fly for players like Acuna.
Jasrado Chisholm Jr.
Mooke Betts
Freedie Freeman
Juan Soto
Pete Alonso
Nick Senzel
Lorenzo Cain
Ryan Mountcastle

STACKS

Atlanta Braves - 4.98 Runs Projected - @ Castellanos (R - ARI)
- Save for the game in Colorado, there are a bunch of good spots to stack tonight. I've already recommneded fitting Acuna into lineups tonight if possible, but I do honestly like Atlanta as a whole. Castellanos has really struggled at times, most notably against good lineups such as the Dodgers most recently (6 earned runs). The Braves offer just as much firepower and as a road stack in Arizona, I'm looking to fire them up tonight.
New York Mets - 5.20 Runs Projected - v. Corbin (L - WAS)
- Anytime a team not playing in Colorado is projected over 5 runs, you must take notice. That, tonight, includes the Mets who are expected to tee off tonight at home v. Patrick Corbin. Corbin has faced the Mets 2x already this season and although he has limited the damage, the advanced metrics just aren't there. Since 2021, every number is bad, wOBA, xFIP, ERA, HR/9, K% - you can basically pick any stat and find something bad about it. Thus, lets take the Mets tonight, a team that has been red hot with the bats scoring 34 runs over their last 4 games.
LA Dodgers
Milwaukee Brewers