MLB DFS BREAKDOWN - 5/27/2022

We have a massive MLB DFS main slate ahead of tonight, with 13 of the 14 games of the day being included.  There remains to be some weather concerns but overall, the slate is loaded with just about everything possible.  Let's break it down with some of our favorite pitchers, bats and stacks.

Weather - Keep an eye out on the games being played in Washington, Detroit and New York.  Each city is showing some significant chance of rain and/or weather issues.

PITCHERS

• Justin Verlander - $10,500 - @ SEA - 7 O/U

  • We all know what Verlander has consistently brought to the table over the last several years and yes, he is the most expensive pitcher over on DraftKings this evening, but for good reason. Although he is on the road, Seattle offers one of the more pitcher friendly parks and vegas is showing Houston has around a 65% chance of winning this game. Furthermore, Seattle is only projected to score 2.94 runs and Verlander has a strikeout projection at 7.5. All great matchup numbers, regardless of who is pitching. Suprisingly, Seattle has a fairly decent WRC+ (10th in MLB) vs. right handed pitching but the teams wOBA (17th) and ISO (20th) are severely lagging behind. Verlander on the otherhand is off to another great season, with 6 wins already on the year, a 3.28 xFIP and 26.3% K%. This will already be his 2nd outing vs. Seattle and so far he has amassed 14.2 innings, 2 ER and 11 Ks. I would confidently fire Verlander up tonight in all formats.

• Jon Gray - $5,500 - @ OAK - 7 O/U

  • I simply think Jon Gray is underpriced tonight, something we should be lookig to take advantage of in a good matchup. Again, we are looking at a road pitcher, not something I typically favor, but the price is right and the matchup is great. Gray has been one of my favorite pitchers over the yar and someone I have made a lot of DFS cash off of, playing as a contrarian starter in Colorado. But those days are behind him (hopefully not me) and he is facing a very weak Oakland lineup tonight. Let's start with Oakland - agianst righties they rank 29th in MLB in WRC+, 30th in wOBA and 29th in ISO. Almost nobody and I mean nobody in that lineup should scare you. By the way, Oakland is also striking out vs. right handers at a 24.3% rate, 8th most in MLB. Now, I'm not saying Gray is the greatest pitcher in baseball but at times throughout his career he can really turn in some gems and more importantly, he is extermely inexpensive in terms of salary. His advanced numbers for 2022 so far are lining up to be some of his career best, which makes sense since he pitched so much in Colorado. But you are looking at a guy with at 3.73 xFIP and 23% K%. It's a great matchup for a very solid pitcher who is priced entirely too low in my mind - I like Gray tonight as a value pitcher.

• Shane Bieber (only if weather seems clear)

• Sean Manaea

• Brandon Woodruff

BATS

• Rafael Devers - $5,800 - v. BAL - v. Bradish (R)

  • Devers checks in tonight as the highest raw projected bat over on Daily Fantasy Nerd and I honestly think this is for good reason. He has been on a tear as of late which includes 9 hits in his last 5 games - trust me, I could have carried that number back even longer but it just got rediculous. Point is, the guy gets hits. Over that same 5 game span, Devers has also averaged an outstanding 16 DK points per game, including a crazy 33 point outburst vs. Seattle. It's a great matchup tonight also as Boston is the highest projected scoring team according to vegas with a 5.45 run total. This makes sense as they take on Baltimore's young Kyle Bradish, who has very limited MLB experience and now heads into one of the most hitter friendly parks in baseball. In AAA in 2021, Bradish supported a 4.07 xFIP and allowed over 1 HR/9 - so I think Devers and the boys in Boston should fair just fine.

• Mookie Bets - $6,100 - @ ARI - v. Bumgarner (L)

  • So I'm hesistant tonight to fully stack the Dodgers, not because I don't believe in their ability to put up a crooked number but because Bumgarner seemingly limits damage, even in his worst games. Yes, he isn't the elite guy he once was but still, to pay all those salaries in a stack to only put up 3-4 runs in 6 or so innings, just doesn't work for me tonight. Regardless, I think you can pick out certain bats and one of those bats includes the 2nd highest salaried bat on the night, Mookie Betts. He doesn't need much justification any given night and I just explained why I'm avoiding Bumgarner, but hear me out, Betts just seems to be on one of the classic Mookie Betts heaters right now. Check out these DK points over his last 5 starts - 19, 37, 20, 18 and 28. Thats just unreal and when he gets on one of these heaters, you just want to be apart of it. Yeah, you will be eating a huge salary tonight in doing so, but I'm willing to jump on the wave, no matter how late. Oh and if it helps (although never needed with Mookie), Bumgarner in 2021 had an xFIP north of 5 vs. right handed bats, an 18.6% K-rate and gave up a really horrible HR/9 to both sides of the plate. So far this season, that trend seems to be continuing.

• Mike Trout

• Manny Machado

• Ozzie Albies

• Nelson Cruz

• Lane Thomas

STACKS

• Boston Red Sox - 5.45 Run Projection - v. Bradish (R - BAL)

  • Basically let's stack against Kyle Bradish, in Fenway, with a team projected to score well over 5 runs on the night, leading the slate. This likely will be a highly owned stack, so adjust accordingly, but it seemingly is a great spot. Boston's lineup for 2022 is top half the league in WRC+ vs. right handed pitching and Top 10 in baseball in both wOBA and ISO. Those ISO numbers get even better vs. righties when playing in Fenway, so load em up and let us hope this isn't Bradish's coming out party.

• New York Yankees - 3.6 Run Projection - @ Springs (L - TB)

  • I honestly don't understand why the Yankees have such a low run projection on the night but it's definatley something I would like to take advantage of. For perspective, as of this writing, the Yankees 3.60 run projection is 20th on the slate - behind teams such as BAL, MIA and TEX. My assumption is that it has to dow with injuries. Stanton is set to miss time and out of the lineup tonight, a huge right handed bat, but it appears LeMahieu and Hicks are confident to return to the lineup tonight - elite guys when facing a left hander. We also have a bit of a journeyman left hander in Springs on the mound. There is nothing specific to point out in regards to Springs, for his career he has been solid even in the split, but the Yankees continue to be one of the most dominant lineups vs. left handed pitching, ranking 4th in WRC+, 8th in wOBA and most importantly, 1st in baseball in ISO. More so, last night the Yankees were able to put up 7 runs vs. another left hander and that was with missing most everyone I just mentioned. I'm ok with failing tonight on this call, simply because I think it's worth taking a shot on a low owned Yankees stack tonight, particularily if DJ and Hicks are back in the lineup.

• Atlanta Braves

• Houston Astros

• LA Angels